Curse

garethporlest18 · Jun 01, 2007, 10:08 PM // 22:08

Well NM chests have given me all purples..only tried 2 though. Another person in alliance got 3 grapes out of NM chests. So far HM chests have given me all rares, and him as well and another person in our alliance all rares from like 38 chests. So I don't know if it's on yet or not, cause NM chest drops sucks.

Jongo River · Jun 01, 2007, 10:16 PM // 22:16

13 Ancient Elonian Keys used - only 2 grapes. Mostly req 12 golds and a couple of useless/worthless superior runes, but a good start all the same. I just hope things aren't totally nerfed before my next gaming session tomorrow evening.

Black Kroh · Jun 01, 2007, 10:16 PM // 22:16

out of 26 Vabbi Chests i've had only 2 purples, 1 of which was a Req 9 Crude Axe Rare SKin)

Sir Skullcrasher · Jun 01, 2007, 10:24 PM // 22:24

I hope I could finally get some decent drops in NF!

Dragonious · Jun 01, 2007, 10:32 PM // 22:32

58% chance of retention on 600 gold chests....8/9 RETAINED with more gold than purple. Can I get a hallelujah?! This is like double luck weekend for me. :-)

*Alexiel* · Jun 01, 2007, 10:32 PM // 22:32

My favourite weekend...Extatic.

However;

Is anyone noticing anything...? Or are me and a few guildies juse having hard luck?

Sure theres Golds, more Golds, but Lockpicks seem to be breaking far too much for me?

I have 4 ranks in lucky, 4 in treasure hunter, not a massive amount but more than some.

Just ran 20 chests in NM. ...18 Lockpicks broke?

Would be just like Anet to give something as great as this as a weekend event but yet take something away at the same time like this. As for me, I could just buy keys but when I have a fair few lockpicks to go might aswell use them and hopefully retain more than what I have been doing this time..

Anyone else noticed something similar?

EDIT: Sorry if something like this has already been posted, haven't had time to read entire thread.

And to above post: Glad to know some people are having better luck, hope mine gets better xD

Every time i lag · Jun 01, 2007, 11:04 PM // 23:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Alexiel*

My favourite weekend...Extatic.

However;

Is anyone noticing anything...? Or are me and a few guildies juse having hard luck?

Sure theres Golds, more Golds, but Lockpicks seem to be breaking far too much for me?

I have 4 ranks in lucky, 4 in treasure hunter, not a massive amount but more than some.

Just ran 20 chests in NM. ...18 Lockpicks broke?

Would be just like Anet to give something as great as this as a weekend event but yet take something away at the same time like this. As for me, I could just buy keys but when I have a fair few lockpicks to go might aswell use them and hopefully retain more than what I have been doing this time..

Anyone else noticed something similar?

EDIT: Sorry if something like this has already been posted, haven't had time to read entire thread.

And to above post: Glad to know some people are having better luck, hope mine gets better xD

u need wisdom tittle for increasing chance of recovery if iam right xd
still bad luck i gues

My Green Storage · Jun 01, 2007, 11:19 PM // 23:19

Out of curiosity I did 2 runs of normal mode Mirror of Lyss Vabbi chests ..

49% chance of retaining it ... 9 keys, 7 broke ... I would love to know they're percentage set up ... I thought 49% was 1/2 chance of saving a key ..

Of those 9 keys, 3 purples. So I figured, welp ... only HM chests do the mostly/all gold thing.

And the 2nd half of the event .. is it good or bad to kill near 80 guys solo and have 0 lockpicks drop in hardmode? lol

Plains of Jarin spiders and Hassin Softskin and his crew ... 7+ runs solo VwK rit and 0 lockpicks

Evilsod · Jun 01, 2007, 11:56 PM // 23:56

Meh, % is dodgy. Think of it as a similar 50% break chance as the 50% miss chance on Blurred Vision...

Perfected Shadow · Jun 02, 2007, 10:52 AM // 10:52

Hmm the way I look at it:

Probability of getting 'lavish loot' from chests or keys/lockpicks = 1/100000000000
This weekend, the probability of getting 'lavish loot' from chests or keys/lockpicks =
2/100000000000

IlikeGW · Jun 02, 2007, 02:19 PM // 14:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by My Green Storage

49% chance of retaining it ... 9 keys, 7 broke ... I would love to know they're percentage set up ... I thought 49% was 1/2 chance of saving a key ..

there's a still a new roll each time. it's probable your results would be a bit better, but it doesn't mean they have to be.

Tuoba Hturt Eht · Jun 02, 2007, 02:47 PM // 14:47

I'm a bit confused, can anyone tell me when does this weekend event actually starts and ends?

Ctb · Jun 02, 2007, 02:54 PM // 14:54

If I get one more gold staff with a Reduces Blindness 20% mod....

Quote:

there's a still a new roll each time. it's probable your results would be a bit better, but it doesn't mean they have to be.

To expand upon the point, you're confusing probability of a single event with probability in a set of events. It's entirely possibly you could fail 500 times in a row with a 50% chance because the chance applies to each attempt, not to all the attempts you make over a given period of time.

In theory, if you make enough attempts, you will break even, but there's no guarantee on how many attempts you'd have to make before that happens. It could be anywhere from 2 all the way to the right on the number line forever.

Evilsod · Jun 02, 2007, 03:32 PM // 15:32

We really don't need philosophical debates on probability...

I'm really getting sick of those mods/inscriptions too. Every other item i get has a condition redction/increasing mod on it.

Ctb · Jun 02, 2007, 03:40 PM // 15:40

Quote:

We really don't need philosophical debates on probability...

It has nothing to do with philosophy or "dodgy" numbers, it's a clearly defined mathematical concept. The probability they're referring to is clearly applied to each individual chest open and lockpick use and therefore does not mean "you'll get twice as many golds". Some people seem to be confusing "you have a double chance" with "you'll get twice as much gold stuff".

</programming nerd>

Quote:

Every other item i get has a condition redction/increasing mod on it.

Indeed. But, hey, at least I got a weakness staff now too...

I don't really give a crap about WoW-grinding for titles, so I think I'll just go back to WoW-grinding for gold in Talus. It was kind of fun to go chest running for a bit, but after 20k with not a single useful drop it's kind of an annoyance now more than anything :\

My best drop so far is an axe with a 20% poison duration increase and a 20/19 axe mastery mod, but it's 15 under 50. Bleh.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know why chest gold drops are almost always focuses, wands, or staves? The collector version of those items are almost always better so they're the things you WOULDN'T need to find in drops, but they seem to be all that drops most of the time. Hell, I haven't gotten a shield or sword from a chest in ages.

Black Kroh · Jun 02, 2007, 03:44 PM // 15:44

I got a gold Req 13 Fellblade at mirror of lyss CR, Im gonna mod it into a caster wep.

Neo Nugget · Jun 02, 2007, 04:00 PM // 16:00

i got 8/9 golds with the 8 lock picks i got. 1 wasn't broken, but the rest were, but at least i got some wisdom points

Evilsod · Jun 02, 2007, 05:03 PM // 17:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ctb

It has nothing to do with philosophy or "dodgy" numbers, it's a clearly defined mathematical concept. The probability they're referring to is clearly applied to each individual chest open and lockpick use and therefore does not mean "you'll get twice as many golds". Some people seem to be confusing "you have a double chance" with "you'll get twice as much gold stuff".

</programming nerd>

Exactly why i hate Statistics and dropped it at the first chance

Quote:

Indeed. But, hey, at least I got a weakness staff now too...

I don't really give a crap about WoW-grinding for titles, so I think I'll just go back to WoW-grinding for gold in Talus. It was kind of fun to go chest running for a bit, but after 20k with not a single useful drop it's kind of an annoyance now more than anything :\

My best drop so far is an axe with a 20% poison duration increase and a 20/19 axe mastery mod, but it's 15 under 50. Bleh.

Out of curiosity, does anyone know why chest gold drops are almost always focuses, wands, or staves? The collector version of those items are almost always better so they're the things you WOULDN'T need to find in drops, but they seem to be all that drops most of the time. Hell, I haven't gotten a shield or sword from a chest in ages.

You said it yourself, its probability ^^ Obviously you're having bad luck with the chances of getting a shield/focus

On the bright side i finally got a perfect Forget me Not inscription, i've been chest running quite a lot since the Lucky weekend and used a few 100 lockpicks. In that time i've seen 2 Forget me Nots and 1 Luck of the Draw...

To make things better i just got a r9 Inscribable FDS

midnight caretaker · Jun 02, 2007, 05:15 PM // 17:15

Running normal mode luxon side, stopped after getting 7 out of 10 purple also there seem to be fewer chests some areas only have 1 or 2 chests

This weekend sucks

Finally guru stop with the adware please i would rather you went back to advertising for ebay to make your money thanks

vergerefosh · Jun 02, 2007, 05:19 PM // 17:19

So far, in NM in nahpui quarter, 3 keys, 3 purples. In Resplendent Makuun HM, 2 or 3 lockpick drops, 2 lockpick retentions, 2 superior runes worth more still attached, one quite nice ruby maul req 9, rest mostly junk. However, did just now in issnur isles get a non-max fiery blade axe in NM. looks cool